Iraq PM heads to Iran: Can Baghdad redefine its relationship with Tehran?

Just days after concluding his first official visit to the United States, Iraq’s newly appointed prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, has arrived in Iran for another high-stakes diplomatic stop.

His first foreign visits after becoming prime minister in May have taken him to Washington, DC, and Tehran – seats of powers for two countries that have shaped Baghdad’s political, security and economic landscape since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Together, they reflect Baghdad’s enduring challenge: maintaining relations with two countries currently engaged in a war without being caught up in the rivalry.

Iraq’s new prime minister

Al-Zaidi, a multimillionaire business figure who was considered a compromise candidate of the governing Shia bloc, was reportedly a preferred option to the US over his challenger, controversial former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

He has also embarked on a high-profile anticorruption campaign, which has seen important figures in Iraq’s political establishment detained on suspicion of corruption.

Al-Zaidi’s first foreign trip as prime minister to Washington in mid-July saw him strike a good rapport with US President Donald Trump, who called the Iraqi leader “a fantastic champion” and said the two countries were “going to be doing a lot of deals”.

This was backed by an announcement that Iraq had struck dozens of agreements and partnerships with US companies and the rehabilitation of a dormant Iraqi-Syrian oil pipeline, a move welcomed by the US Department of State.

Al-Zaidi talked about moving Iraq’s relationship with the US from a security-based one to collaboration on economic issues, indicating his ambitions to deepen trust and ties between Washington and Baghdad.

But under al-Zaidi’s government, Iraq could be entering a new political chapter, seeking to project itself as a more independent regional actor, after becoming heavily influenced by Iran since the fall of President Saddam Hussein in 2003.

New chapter for Iraq

Iraq remains heavily reliant on Iranian natural gas and electricity, while bilateral trade exceeds $12bn annually, making it one of Iran’s largest trading partners.

Millions of Iranian Shia pilgrims also cross the border to visit holy sites every year, highlighting the deep religious and cultural ties between the two countries.

The route of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral procession through the Iraqi Shia pilgrimage cities of Najaf and Karbala highlights this long symbiosis between the two countries.

The Iranian government has also cultivated close ties with influential Shia parties and armed groups in Iraq that form the backbone of Iraq’s security forces, giving Tehran significant leverage inside Baghdad’s power structures.

There has been immense pressure from the US for Iraq to tighten state control over Iran-aligned armed groups operating in the country, which have played a significant military role on the side of Tehran during the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

Yet they are also an important part of the Iraqi security forces. So managing Baghdad’s relations with these Tehran-linked armed groups while preserving internal stability remains one of the Iraqi government’s most difficult political tests.

But the war has resulted in severe economic and military losses for Iran and has introduced other diplomatic challenges for its government.

Regional relations

Al-Zaidi’s election as PM has seen efforts to strengthen Iraq’s bumpy ties with Gulf Arab states and Turkiye, seeking to present Baghdad as a bridge between competing regional powers.

That balancing act is expected to define the discussions in Tehran, with one particularly sensitive issue being the future of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, outside Baghdad’s direct control.

Tehran views these groups as a security threat and has repeatedly targeted them in air strikes since the war began on February 28.

It has demanded that Baghdad prevent these groups from using Iraqi territory, accusing them of operating with backing from the US and Israel’s Mossad to cause unrest in Iran via cross-border attacks.

Despite the symbolism of al-Zaidi’s visits, it is unlikely to produce dramatic foreign policy shifts for Iraq, and instead, it is expected to reaffirm a reality that has defined Iraq’s foreign policy for years – that it cannot afford to choose between Washington and Tehran. Iraq’s stability depends on maintaining constructive relations with both countries.

The larger question is whether Iraq’s new leadership can gradually redefine that balance, assert greater independence from these two powers, while preserving its strategic partnerships with both Iran and the US.