Qeshm island and Hormuz hit, as mediators try to prevent US-Iran escalation

Tehran, Iran – The United States has bombed Iran after vessels were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, as mediators continue to try to prevent large-scale fighting between the two countries.

Two projectiles hit Iran’s Qeshm on Friday night, the latest in a series of air strikes on the southern island over recent weeks targeting Iranian air defences and launchers. President Donald Trump called them “minor strikes”, amid increasing concerns of a potential escalation in the war between the countries.

Iran’s army said in the early hours of Saturday that it destroyed a US-made MQ-9 drone using an unnamed new system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) separately claimed on Friday that its air defences intercepted an MQ-1, reportedly the 16th aircraft of this model to be destroyed since the start of the war.

At least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz over the week ending on November 6, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which said three of them sank. The Western military intelligence agency has recorded 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July, although it has cautioned that most attacks are going unreported.

UKMTO’s weekly report also identified 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 65 percent below pre-conflict levels. Most of the vessels that travel with their transponders switched on are using the Iranian route to the north. But many ships are still attempting the southern route near Oman with their tracking systems offline to shuttle oil out of the waterway.

Iranian armed forces also claim that, in addition to being hit with missiles and drones, tankers and commercial vessels using “unauthorised” routes also run the risk of being hit by naval mines.

The Iranian military’s naval force said on Saturday that a tanker with its transponder turned off caught fire in the eastern area of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. Washington says the mines have been cleared.

No range limit on missiles

For years, the IRGC maintained that it was limiting the range of its ballistic missiles to about 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles) to reassure European countries that they would not be targeted.

But with Trump threatening to resume extensive air strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, commanders say nothing is off limits now.

“This limitation has been lifted for us,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told reporters during an event on Saturday, in reference to missile range constraints.

His comments came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an unrestrained military response to any future threats from Israel and the US. Iran’s aerospace division of the IRGC has prepared “surprising defence achievements” that will be deployed in action if another wave of major attacks starts, he added.

“The operational unveiling of these [advanced] achievements in case of new conflict will not only frustrate and fascinate enemies, but will further solidify Iran’s military authority on the global stage, make the resistance front happy, and fully neutralise aggressors’ calculations,” Mohebbi said.

The spokesman said the IRGC plans to unveil another underground “missile city” soon, and will deploy some combat systems to public spaces so the people can personally inspect them.

Mohebbi added that if the Islamic republic decides to alter its nuclear doctrine and build a bomb, the necessary preparations will be made.

On state television’s war-focused Be Vaght-e Iran (At Iran’s Time) programme over the weekend, presenters and analysts said Iranian armed forces had their fingers on the trigger and were especially eyeing any movement from Israel.

“Our military information about the strategic chokepoints of Israel is complete. If our water, electricity and natural gas is cut off, they will also be plunged into darkness and lack of water,” one analyst said. “This is not a bluff, but a serious warning.”

‘Pendulum swing between war and talks’

Over recent weeks, diplomatic efforts by mediators to avoid attacks that could damage the entire region have picked up, although with limited gains.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that he held talks with 12 foreign ministers over the past 48 hours, including top diplomats from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

He said he explained the “fundamental positions” of Tehran, including the seven demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stressed the need to form “regional security arrangements without the interference of superregional powers”.

Security chief Mohsen Rezaei reportedly emphasised the same conditions to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Thursday, which was also aimed at delivering a message from Khamenei.

Developments between Iran and the US resemble a “constant pendulum swing between war and negotiations” that is increasingly leaning towards conflict, according to political analyst Mostafa Najafi, who is said to be close to Iran’s security chief.

“What is clear for now is that the movement of this pendulum will continue; a conflict whose ending is much more complicated and time-consuming than imagined,” he wrote on X. The historic defeat for Trump and the Republicans in US midterm elections this week may further complicate the picture, he added.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said three factors increase the risk of war in the short term after the elections, unless negotiations lead to a breakthrough.

The political cost of high fuel prices, brought about largely due to the war on Iran, has already been paid, he said, and there won’t be another point on the political calendar soon for Trump to worry about this issue.

“On the one hand, the pressure to get a deal will dissipate,” he told Al Jazeera.

Pressure from pro-war hawks will also escalate significantly because they will be constrained in their efforts to step up the conflict after the Democrats take control of Congress in early January. The appointment of far-right, pro-Israel hawk Stephen Miller as chief of staff also hints that Trump might not be ready to wind down the war.

“Finally, there is a new psychological element to Trump’s mindset following this humiliation: Trump’s desire for vengeance. There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran – in Trump’s mind – has ruined his presidency,” Parsi said.